GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Debka Report: US weighs hit-and-run raids to disable Qaddafi's air capability

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

28February2011 6:25pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The US is repositioning its naval and air forces around Libya, Pentagon spokesman Col. David Lapan stated Monday, Feb. 28, indicating possible military steps to break the standoff between Muammar Qaddafi's army and rebel forces in the fighting for control of the towns commanding the roads to the capital Tripoli where Qaddafi is barricaded.

The reported rebel capture of the key towns of Misrata and Zawiya is technically correct. In fact, they are both surrounded by Libyan troops who control their road links with Tripoli. In Misrata, the army has a valuable edge over opposition forces in its control of the local airfield.

The Pentagon spokesman's indeed remarked that there are "various contingency plans" for the North African country where Muammar Qaddafi's forces and rebels in the east "remain locked in a tense standoff."

Most military observers interpreted his remark as referring to potential US military intervention in Libya to break the stalemate. It was strengthened by the imminent redeployment off the Libyan coast of USS Enterprise from the Red Sea and the amphibious USS Kearsarge, which has a fleet of helicopters and about 1,800 Marines aboard. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Qaddafi's air force is up again and ferrying fresh troops to defend Tripoli

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

28February2011 6:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Hours after the UN Security Council unanimously imposed sanctions on Col. Muammar Qaddafi and his regime, his reactivated air force was flying army and tribal reinforcements from the south and landing them at the military airfields of Tripoli, Misrata and Sirte. DEBKAfile's military sources report.  Sunday night, Feb. 27, men were immediately deployed at the main road intersections leading to the capital.

This move at the current stage of Libya's civil war lessens the military significance of the rebels' reported takeover of towns around Tripoli, including Al Zawiya to the west, from which Qaddafi's forces pulled back to guard the main road to Tripoli.

For now, the rebels face four main difficulties:

1. They lack organized military strength to stand up to Qaddafi's professionally-trained and equipped soldiers. This imbalance can only be offset by a mutiny in the army's ranks or assassination.
2. Instead of digging in and consolidating their control of the eastern part of the country after its capture, the rebels went after Tripoli in order to topple Qaddafi. Sunday night, this goal looked unattainable.
3. They have rejected US and European offers of military assistance in the strongest terms warning that if foreign troops intervened they would redirect their guns from Qaddafi on the interlopers.
4. The rebels are fighting without air cover, while Qaddafi's forces command enough air power and air fields in the south to keep up a steady flow of fresh fighting men in his support.

Early Sunday, Feb. 27, US President Barack Obama called on Libyan ruler Col. Muammar Qaddafi to leave now, having lost the legitimacy to rule since "his only means of staying in power is to use violence against his own people," and the UN Security Council's 15 members unanimously slapped down wide-reaching sanctions on members of his family and regime commanders, calling for an immediate International Criminal Court probe of Qaddafi, his seven sons and daughter and military commanders, on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: My family will live and die in Libya: Chilling pledge from Gaddafi's son as battle for Tripoli begins

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Daily Mail

26February2011 1:00pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The battle for Colonel Gaddafi’s last stronghold of Tripoli appeared to be under way last night, with claims that some suburbs in the Libyan capital had fallen to rebels.

Triumphant but terrified residents said anti-Gaddafi protesters were in control of up to three areas in the sprawling city, despite another bloody crackdown by mercenaries and troops which left at least nine dead and dozens wounded.

As night fell on Tripoli, Gaddafi appeared in the central Green Square to make an impassioned speech of defiance, telling 1,000 of his supporters waving pictures of him to fight back and ‘defend the nation’.

Pumping his fist in the air, Gaddafi, wearing a fur cap and sunglasses, spoke from the ramparts of the historic Red Castle to demand his supporters ‘retaliate against them’ and ‘prepare to defend the nation and defend the oil’.

He went on: ‘We are ready to triumph over the enemy . . . I am in the middle of the crowds . . . We will defeat any foreign attempt, as we have defeated Italian colonialism and American raids.’

Gaddafi’s favourite son, Saif, vowed that his family will ‘live and die in Libya’ and will not allow ‘a bunch of terrorists’ to take control of the country.

In an interview aired on Turkish TV, he was asked if his family has a ‘plan B’ in the face of the growing unrest and would leave the country.

He replied: ‘We have Plan A, Plan  B and Plan C. Plan A is to live and  die in Libya, Plan B is to live and die in Libya, Plan C is to live and die in Libya.’ (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: U.S. Fears Tripoli May Deploy Gas As Chaos Mounts

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Wall Street Journal

25February2011 4:30pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: WASHINGTON—The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos.

Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to milit cade have scored gains, in particular the dismantling of Tripoli's nascent nuclear-weapons program and its Scud C missile stockpiles. But the level of instability in Libya, and Col. Gadhafi's history of brutality, continues to make the U.S. focus on the arms and chemical agents that remain, they said.

"When you have a guy who's as irrational as Gadhafi with some serious weapons at his disposal, it's always a concern," said a U.S. official. "But we haven't yet seen him move to use any kind of mustard gas or chemical weapon" during the unrest. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Civil War in Libya: Jets bomb civilians. Pilots, high officials flee to Malta

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

21February2011 3:00pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Muammar Qaddafi's 42-year rule of Libya appeared to have begun disintegrating Monday, Feb. 21, as civil war swept the country with no signs of him quitting. Instead, he ordered the army to redouble its brutal assaults on the opposition. The Air Force began bombing crowds at random while army tanks and armored vehicles blasted them with live ammunition - not just in the insurgent eastern provinces of Cyrenaica, but the capital of Tripoli and its environs too.

There, helicopter gunships aimed heavy machine fire into the main market, the Souk al Jumma, while the first tribal militias loyal to Qaddafi to arrive in the capital from the Sahara fought alongside the army. Casualties soared to an estimated 600, with 250 in Tripoli alone as Qaddafi rallied for a bloody civil war that could linger for years.

High officials of his regime and businessmen began fleeing Tripoli aboard Libyan Air Force fighter jets and helicopters which landed Monday at Malta's MIA international airport.  Government officials in Valetta said the pilots had defected rather than bomb demonstrators, while all the Libyan arrivals asked for political asylum and more flights were on the way.  

The United States and European Union have concentrated airplanes and ferries on the island ready to evacuate the thousands of their citizens employed in Libya, most in the oil and gas fields, starting Monday night, while the price of crude oil shot up 5 percent.

The 48 hours during which Qaddafi dropped out of sight from Saturday were spent, DEBKAfile's sources report, in mustering embers of loyal Libyan tribes to fight along the remnants of the army for his reinstatement. There are no signs he has any intention of following in the footsteps of the Tunisians and Egyptian presidents and step down. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.