ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center
SOURCE: Iranian Diplomacy
11February2011 9:48amEST
GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Can Iran become the old and new bridge head of the West? Geopolitically, it is located between the Middle East, the Caucasus and Asia. According to the German Ur-father of the Middle East expert Prof. Dr. Peter Scholl-Latour, Iran remains an "island of stability".
In the meantime, the revolts that started in Tunisia have spread to several Arab countries, and have now reached Egypt. It is evident why the riots have captured Egypt most intensely. The regime of President Hosni Mubarak was akin to the Tunisian regime in many ways, despite the fact that the Egyptian system will prove to be more stable and more resistant, particularly as it profits from the experience of the Tunisian revolution and the awkward TV appearances of President Zeynel Abidin Ben Ali.
The current unrest in the streets of the Arab countries have thus far not spread to Iran, in spite of the strong reductions of subsidies that began one month ago, which pose the greatest structural economic reform in recent Iranian history. Some Western commentators regarded the reductions of subsidies as a success of the latest sanctions, even though the IMF has been recommending Iran for many years to cut its gigantic subsidies. As a matter of fact, the reductions, which have occurred, are a sign of the political stability and economic prosperity of Iran. No government prior to Ahmadinejad was able to tackle the long overdue reform, although the debate in Iran had been going on for more than a decade. It is all the more bizarre that even some newspapers with laissez-faire policies in the U.S. and Europe played down and did not welcome these bold measures. Ultimately, there were no protests whatsoever after these severe reductions. (read full report)
